Duterte takes lead from Poe in latest Pulse Asia survey

Apr 12, 2016
<p>"Pero kung si Duterte na yung nangunguna, dahil nga may question ako sa pagbaba ni Grace Poe at pagtaas ni Duterte na ganoon kataas, hindi ako sigurado," said IFER executive director Ramon Casiple when asked to interpret the latest Pulse Asia poll.</p>

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte has taken the solo lead in Pulse Asia’s latest presidential survey.

Mayor Duterte gained 30 percent share of votes, showing a six-point increase compared to the previous pre-election survey.

On the other hand, Senator Grace Poe’s numbers dropped by four points with a total of 25 percent share of votes.

The latest Pulse Asia survey, conducted from March 29 to April 3, was answered by 4,000 respondents with ±1.5 margin of error.

Vice President Jejomar Binay and former Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Mar Roxas statistically tied in third place with 20 percent and 19 percent share of votes, respectively.

In the previous poll, Binay had 23 percent share of votes, while Roxas had 19 percent share of votes.

Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago consistently came in last with two percent share of votes.

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QUESTIONABLE RESULTS IN LATEST POLL? Ramon Casiple, executive director of Institute for Political and Electoral Reform (IFER), questioned the spike in Duterte’s numbers and five-point decrease in Poe’s share of votes.

Casiple said, “May question dun sapagkat si Duterte, tingin ko, may enough basis to say that [his numbers are consistently increasing based on the surveys].

“Yung pagbaba ni Grace Poe ang wala akong makitang ganung ka-plausible na reason.

“Yung usapin na silang dalawa na lang, at this time, ang naglalabanan for the top spot, borne out by the survey yun.

“Pero kung si Duterte na yung nangunguna, dahil nga may question ako sa pagbaba ni Grace Poe at pagtaas ni Duterte na ganoon kataas, hindi ako sigurado.”

PEP.ph (Philippine Entertainment Portal) was able to interview Casiple, via phone, this Tuesday night, April 12.    

At this point in the presidential race, Casiple explained that he cannot see any “logical explanation” in the notable difference between the two presidential candidates.

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For one thing, he observed that the poll took place right after the long Holy Week break.

“Kasi we’re only talking of around the week after the last survey came out [March 15 to 20].

“Ang week na ‘yan is actually Holy Week, wala masyadong nangyari.

“And then suddenly may ganyan ka na [poll results].

“’Yan yung question diyan actually, both sa presidency and vice presidency.”

When asked if the March 20 presidential debate in Visayas affected the latest poll, Casiple explained that it did, but mostly at the expense of Binay who caused the delay in the said event.

“Definitely. Pero it’s not enough to explain yung pagtaas at pagbaba [ng score].

“Kasi halimbawa, si Grace Poe, e, wala naman nagsabi na tinamaan siya sa debate, except dun sa particular question about South China Sea.

“Ang universal na tingin dun na tinamaan ay si Binay, dahil sa pag-delay [ng debate], maraming comment ang inabot niya.”

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PEP also asked if the notable number of Mayor Duterte’s supporters in social media has an impact in the latest poll.

Casiple answered, “Perception gain, yes. Pero hindi naman covered ng social media lahat ng botante.

“Confined lang sa areas na may internet connection, largely urban areas.

“So, wala akong nakikitang ganun kalaki.”

BINAY, ROXAS NEED TO “CATCH UP.” As for Binay and Roxas’s standing in the latest poll, Casiple observed that there is a significant difference between Binay and Roxas and the two leading presidentiables in the poll.

“Ibig sabihin may movement away from them [Binay and Roxas] patungo sa dalawa [Duterte and Poe].

“Meaning, natatamaan sila nung pagtaas nung dalawa pa.

“Hindi pa naman puwedeng sabihin na wala na sa race, mataas pa naman sila.”

Casiple further said that Binay and Roxas really have to work “double or triple time” in terms of gaining more votes in the remaining weeks before the May 9 elections.

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“Otherwise, kapag dalawang linggo pa ‘yan, naku, mahirap na.

“Pero at this time, all four of them are still in the running.

“Yun nga lang may differentiation based on perception dito.

“Itong dalawa, si Grace at Duterte, are representing change or reform to the constituency.

“Habang itong dalawa pa, traditional politics.”

VOTE FOR THE LEADER YOU WANT. Truth be told, Casiple maintained that the surveys alone hardly show who the real front-runner is.

“Except na ang suspetsa ko yung social engineering going on kay Duterte on the top.

“Ibig ko sabihin dito, dahil perception gain ito, the whole survey, target ng lahat ng pulitiko.

“Napakahirap magbase lang sa reading, dun lang sa...

“May mga stories, di ba nga, noon pa may mga vote na nabayaran, may problema sa methodologies, may set-up na commission survey.”  

With less than a month to go before the nationwide elections, Casiple advised the Filipino voters to vote according to what they really look for in a leader and not just rely on the trend based on pre-electoral surveys.

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“It has to do with what they want. Not survey-based but what they want.

“May kanya-kanya tayong hinahanap sa leader, e.

“Usually, ang lumalabas sa surveys mismo, yung type na tao na madaling lapitan, yung mga nakakatulong sa mga problema nila.

“Honest and sincere, et cetera.

“Kasi antithesis ang perception sa mga pulitiko kapag mga trapo.”

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<p>"Pero kung si Duterte na yung nangunguna, dahil nga may question ako sa pagbaba ni Grace Poe at pagtaas ni Duterte na ganoon kataas, hindi ako sigurado," said IFER executive director Ramon Casiple when asked to interpret the latest Pulse Asia poll.</p>
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