Opinion polls are part and parcel of the election season in the Philippines. And since the national elections in May 1992, opinion polls so far have adequately gauged the likely winners.
Critics, however, have an askance view of surveys as a mind-conditioning apparatus; pollsters, on the other hand, swear by the data science behind the surveys.
But there's one aspect of the 2022 elections that fuels skepticism—COVID-19.
One year of stay-at-home protocol has altered daily life, including surveys that are mostly being done by phone instead of face-to-face interviews. Will the new normal affect the accuracy of the results?
too early to predict the winner
For starters, here are the basics
A survey being done today simply reflects the pulse of the people at the moment the questions are asked.
In short, the answers do not necessarity foreshadow the outcome of the May 2022 vote, which is one year away, said political analyst Ramon Casiple.
Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, told reportr, "The survey can only reflect what is the actual state at a certain time.
"You cannot have a survey today and expect the result to be the same one week from now, one month from now.
He explained that election surveys merely ask the opinion of a respondent, and this could change depending on the positions a potential candidate take, or the situations they find themselves in.
"That's why surveys are not really that reliable if you're talking about candidates for a long period of time before the election.
"The real answer will come only when he (the voter) is already thinking whom to vote."
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The survey frontrunners in the last two presidential elections, then Senate President Manuel Villar in 2010 and then Vice President Jejomar Binay in 2016, saw their leads dissipate as the dark horses rose to overrun them; namely, former President President Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III and President Rodrigo Duterte, respectively.
In 2004, former President Gloria Arroyo was statistically tied with the late movie king Fernando Poe Jr. in an election that was marred by allegations of widespread cheating.
Only former President Joseph Estrada leveraged his early survey lead to victory in the 1998 polls, only to be ousted by EDSA Dos three years later.
In April, Pulse Asia tipped the incumbent's daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Caprio as the likely winner if the vote were held during the survey period, Feb. 22 to Mar. 3. She was followed by former Sen. Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. (13%), Sen. Grace Poe (12%), Manila Mayor Isko Moreno (12%) and Sen. Manny Pacquiao (10%). Vice President Leni Robredo got 7% while long-time presidential aide Sen. Senator Bong Go garnered 5%.
understandING how surveys are done
Pulse Asia research director Ana Tabunda told reportr that their organization follows a stringent process in their pre-election surveys.
Tabunda said Pulse Asia still does face-to-face interviews in the household level while observing minimum health standards for COVID-19. This, she said, is because not all of their respondents have a cellphone or a landline to allow for phone interviews.
In the recent Pulse Asia election survey, a total of 2,400 respondents were asked who among the list of potential candidates they would vote for in 2022. Tabunda said they used random sampling in determining the respondents. This was done by sampling cities and municipalities in proportion to their population size, and then randomly selecting barangays and households.
In research, a random sample is picked out from a list, say a census of an entire barangay, using a formula that is meant to result in a group that is representative of the entire population.
The public, however, should take into consideration the "margin of error" in election surveys when looking at the results, Tabunda said.
"The error margin means, supposing a senatorial candidate obtains a voter preference of 46% and the error margin is +/- 2% because they have 2,400, that means we are 95% certain that 44% to 48% of Filipino adults will be voting for that senatorial candidate," she told reportr.
Tabunda reminded the public that the results of election surveys should be taken as a "snapshot in time."
She explained, "Those are opinions and attitudes of the people at that time the survey was taken. These perceptions and attitudes can of course change through time. That's why we continue to collect a sample."
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Why surveys are important
According to University of the Philippines political science professor Jean Encinas-Franco, poll surveys help educate the public on how candidates fare during the election period. It also makes them aware of the issues related to the candidate.
She told reportr, "Merong multiplier effect din in the sense that, why is this candidate faring well in the survey? Then it generates discussion and opinions. It kind of prepares the public for the upcoming elections. Potentially, they make them want to know more and look for information," .
For this reason alone, Encinas-Franco said election surveys should be properly done. The background and context of these polls, including whether it's commissioned or not, should be disclosed to the public and laymanized for easy understanding.
Casiple pointed out further that a survey if done correctly will measure the potential candidate's winnability, without necessarily reflecting the outcome of the actual polls.
He said, "Surveys show who the people are thinking of voting. It's not the survey that determines the outcome of the election," he said.
With the national elections still a year away, Casiple said the public would still have to watch out for who will actually run and wait for the results of election surveys just before May 9, 2022.
"The best time to know the possible result of that would be the time just before election," he said.